War stash bags rigged or bugged?


#1

So I completed the 4 stashes getting the 4 Bags, each bag with 4 characters with 25% chances each. I got Ivannova 3 times in a row and if I do the math the chances of getting 3 times the same outcome is 0.25x0.25x0.25=0.015625 or 1,5%. So pretty much the same odds of getting an ascendable from a single pull. Are you telling me that the odds are right? Anybody experienced the same with these bags?


#2

Sounds legit to me by Scopely standards and past similarities dealing with mods. I doubt many bought all 4 though since they’re mediocre toons. Keep surviving.


#3

If there was a bag with 90% for Erika and 10% of Aiko, and you opened that bag 10 times, you can bet you’ll get Aiko each time. As much as a like Aiko, it would be annoying to get a dupe of her.


#4

All depends on the puller me thinks. If there is a blue toon in the bag, that is what I am getting. Happens every time. In my view it depends more on the account. For all we know some internal account Id is the seed for the RNG. Ours most likely negative tagged which will always yield the worst pull of the bunch. Sounds scary.


#5

i think all bags are rigged and scopely decids what you will get before you open them. When wasr first came out i took part in 2 diff regions, finished the same spot in both regions.

Opened up the bags and in region 2 i got the exact same rewards as in region 1 and they were in the same order.

i think your account code and the time that you pull are used as the seed. This is why some poeple seem lucky AF as they have the lucky flag on their acc ticked


#6

This is unacceptable since the odds are suppose to match what is displayed and not have and internal algorithm that decides what I can get.


#7

This is assuming that the “certain accounts have better odds than others” theory is true. If it is, I wouldn’t be surprised, there no such thing as true RNG in computers.


#8

Nope theres not this is why i think they may use the time as a seed. i noticed with one event that if i did my pull at a certain time i always got one of the 5* characters. Which for me is good as in 3 years i have never pulled a prem toon.

There was a dude in my faction who was one of the original whales and he would get everything for events in one pull. Michone head he got like 3 with no effort, i grinded out 50 pulls for it and got nothing.

HS michone he got on one pull, i did 38k coins and didnt even get a 5* lol that as when my big spending days were over


#9

This is a good theory, I’ve gotten good stuff quite often when I pull at around 10-11PM PST.


#10

Unrealated but can they bring thr war crate back need 2 toks


#11

No matter what the reason is I would like seeing someone taking a look at the odds and see if it is actually 25% each item because getting the same outcome 3 times is pretty unlikely(1.5%) based just in the odds. @JB.Scopely @GR.Scopely


#12

Your odds are wrong. Technically out of 4 bags, your chances of getting 3 Ivanovas is 4.6875%. (0.25)^3(0.75)(4)

To put into perspective, out of 100 players, 5 players on average should pull 3 Ivanovas. (Or any 3 of the same kind).

Players have pulled 2 6*s with a 40 pull, which is around 7.239% while I’ve had pulled Erika from a stash at 0.2% odds. Small odds does not mean it can’t happen.


#13

You are right but you are trying to play devils advocate in here. Out of the first 3 bags I got Ivannova which technically by taking into account just those 3 events the chances of that to happen are 1.5%. I´ve played the game for at least 2 years(I have taken 2 breaks off the game now but still around 2 years of gameplay) and I have never pulled a 5* or 6* out of a single pull and the chances of pulling a 5* or 6* are pretty much the same that getting 3 times in a row the same outcome out of those bags. I just don´t want people to tell me that I’m wrong if they have no proof that the odds for those specific bags are correct because they might have assigned different chances than the ones displayed


#14

Not devil’s advocate, just stating some statistical facts.

If you’re considering only the first 3 bags, then yes, the odds would be 1.5%. However, you initially looked at the situation as 3 Ivanovas out of 4 bags, so it’s higher.

I’m not saying you’re wrong, or that the odds can’t be bugged. I’m only saying that small odds are always a possibility. Just as you’ve lucked out on this 1.5%, other players have lucked out on a 1% chance for a single 6* pull. As improbable as some things are, unfortunately they can do happen. If someone were to say I would pull 3 Ace of Hearts out of 4 Ace cards, I wouldn’t dismiss that probability easily.


closed #15

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