Token Stash Odds - bait and switch

cheating

#1

The New stash isnt lining up. Normally the odds line up to the visual count… not so this time.

60 items, each should be equally weighted. The odds are significantly short for the 3Year Tokens as listed below.



gap

If someone is going to spend close to 18k gold coins and the odds dont line up, in some circles, that’s a problem.

@JB.Scopely


#2

This happened with the Jesus shield crate too so no surprises. It was one crate out of 100 items but the actual stated chance was 0.3%


#3

It is pretty sketchy to have a stash where there is not an equal weighting of getting any item regardless of value.

But at least you can check that. So that’s something I guess…


#4

Except I don’t think that each item, being equally weighted, was ever stated to be for stashes. It might have lined up in the past, but equal weights was never the stated baseline for all stashes.


#5

Isnt that the whole thing of a stash, you see what’s in it and every draw is a grab at an item inside.

Im still trying to figure out what it would look like if you did a large number of draws because once you depleted the 9 x Elite Item Tokens or 9 x 4* weapons, you could still be drawing them and NOT the 3YT?

Itd be like lining up to pick teams, being last picked, and still more people are being picked in front of you.
smh


#6

No, the whole point of the stash was to not get items that you’ve previously gotten.

It’s why the items visually cancel out once you pull them. So once you get all the elite item tokens, you won’t get them again in the stash.


#7

so we agree.
Then you see the problem how the posted odds cant line up to the visuals?
The Gap makes that happening impossible. (especially for the 3YT)


#8

Odds need to be fixed on toons wheels should be based on 40 pulls if you do 40 pull should be automatic ascend you do a 10 pull should be atleast 1 5* guaranteed


#9

I’m also butt hurt because I haven’t pull ascend from premium wheel in over a year worse I ever had was over 300 pulls 0 5*


#10

The posted odds won’t make sense once you start pulling, because they aren’t adjusted for pulls done. But that’s different from what you’re originally talking.

What you’re talking about is the quantity of items, having equal odds, not matching the supposed odds.

You’re thinking 21/60 items means that 35% chance to get a Y3 token, or simply, each item, regardless of what it is, has a 1/60 chance, or 1.66667%.

What’s actually happening is 0.7% chance for each individual Y3 token. (1/21 * 15%). Also, that’s not factoring in the fact that the 100 Y3 token pull is likely going to have lower odds than the 5 Y3 token pull.

So in reality, this is what the odds are for getting each item individually.

Y3 Token Pull: 0.714% -> 21 Y3 Token pulls = 15%
5* Token: 1.19% -> 21 5* Token pulls = 25%
4* Weapon Tokens: 3.3333% -> 9 Weapon Tokens Pull = 30%
Elite Item Tokens: 3.3333% -> 9 Elite Token Pulls = 30%

The odds above are simplified and does not account for the varying amounts of tokens that can get gained in pulls. So, for example, for simplicity sake, I’m assuming 100 Y3 token pull and 5 Y3 token pull share the same weight, within that 15% chance. Same applies to the other 3 token types.


#11

Also notice how to 100 3 year token’s odds are baked into the other 5 3 year tokens’. So, of the 15% it could be even odds for the 100 or it could be minuscule. We have no way of knowing. Just more smoke and mirrors.


#12

But there are only 30 times in the stash, eventually you’re going to want to get them all so it doesn’t matter what order you pull them in


#13

that stash is cash grab where are the offers for twd tokens


#14

In the offers section? I’ve seen offers for 15, 25 and 45 tokens in the last week.

Which, incidentally, are also cash grabs…


#15

Lol EVERYTHING is a cash grab :joy::joy:


#16

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