This might seem like a duplicate thread to the ones existing but I am approaching this from a digital-asset-valuation point of view similar to how one would approach a pack of Magic the Gathering cards, for exmaple. Feel free to disagree or rant but please no “defamation” - let’s not get this locked. I had made a similar reply in that bigger thread but I thought this topic warrant separate discussion so here we are.
VALUE OF YOUR 5s
With the recent 6* offer at US$100, a few things happened.
First, a 6* at t1 lv 1 represents:
- 1 fully maxed 5*
- 8 x 5* fodder
- gear for each tier of t2, t3, t4
- food required (for the exact math please refer to one of the super informative excels floating around)
—> *AND medals! <—
5* are now valued at US$100/9 = US$11 (or less)
And in all actuality, less than that based on the offer pricing of 1M food and gear offers floating around. For the simplicity of discussion let’s just focus on 5* for now - directly supported by the current 2 x Benedict offer (that comes with bonus stuff) which, if I may point out, costs more than $11 per (meaning it’s not that of a great deal, after all)
ON PREMIER RECRUITS
Our (supposed) 1 in 40 guaranteed 5* pull is actually worth US$11 (or less) meaning per US$100 we dump into premium pulls, Scopely is guaranteed to net 1:9 in ROI per their current digital asset valuation of 5* and 6*. Further to this, at US$11 this translates to 8200/9 = 911 coins. Meaning if you do not score a 6 within the first 4 pulls (1000 coins) you are absolutely getting destroyed.* (not that we aren’t already) And if you do pull a 6* within the first 40-pulls then man o man have you hit the jackpot! (not that it’s super likely based on Scopely chance)
ON EVENT PRIZING
Current solo level up first place gives 10,000 5* coins and a bunch of gear (at 0 value). So the actual winning is US$11. In comparison, the last solo level up that featured Christmas nuggets that could translate to a 6* at 12,000 was a US$100 prize! Boy, it seems Scopely CAN get super generous sometimes, eh?
EDIT: ON CRW
Rank Rewards: 1: 18000 5☆ Recruit Tokens | 3 Legendary Gear Bags | 4 Legendary Trainer
18000 = 1.8 x 5* = US$19.8
3 legendary gear bags = 0 (until they start to sell just legendary gear; meanwhile, canteen/gps was sold via stash and we can assume that those are 10,000+ coins each)
4 legendary trainers (based on current crates, should be less than US$11 because for the same price this offer has more stuff, but for simplicity) US$44
Total: US$65 + unknown value for legendary gear Oh dear.
As a P12, man - when I sat down to really thought about it all I absolutely got wrecked by this US$100 offer. Sure - I am happy for the community in general because engagement is king and will keep the game going but looking at my own server (Terrell is 2 years old) we are really aging and slowing down. Also, having failed to resist the gambler in me I did 31 pulls and did net a 5* Hershel - through this irresponsible behavior I spent 6850 coins and actually lost 6850-911= 5939 coins = US$72. Oh boy.
As well, weapons, on the hand, are currently not affected (yet) since premier weapon pulls are not as popular and do not have that 1 in 40 guarantee. Maybe this will happen when 5* weapons come out. But for now, the top enchantments like stun guns are being pegged at US$100 as well.
EDIT: this rapid asset value erosion matters, if the business plan is to head south - all the way south.