The recent 6* offer and why this rapid asset value erosion matters

This might seem like a duplicate thread to the ones existing but I am approaching this from a digital-asset-valuation point of view similar to how one would approach a pack of Magic the Gathering cards, for exmaple. Feel free to disagree or rant but please no “defamation” - let’s not get this locked. I had made a similar reply in that bigger thread but I thought this topic warrant separate discussion so here we are.


VALUE OF YOUR 5s

With the recent 6* offer at US$100, a few things happened.

First, a 6* at t1 lv 1 represents:

  • 1 fully maxed 5*
  • 8 x 5* fodder
  • gear for each tier of t2, t3, t4
  • food required (for the exact math please refer to one of the super informative excels floating around)
    —> *AND medals! <—

Meaning:

5* are now valued at US$100/9 = US$11 (or less)

And in all actuality, less than that based on the offer pricing of 1M food and gear offers floating around. For the simplicity of discussion let’s just focus on 5* for now - directly supported by the current 2 x Benedict offer (that comes with bonus stuff) which, if I may point out, costs more than $11 per (meaning it’s not that of a great deal, after all)

ON PREMIER RECRUITS

Our (supposed) 1 in 40 guaranteed 5* pull is actually worth US$11 (or less) meaning per US$100 we dump into premium pulls, Scopely is guaranteed to net 1:9 in ROI per their current digital asset valuation of 5* and 6*. Further to this, at US$11 this translates to 8200/9 = 911 coins. Meaning if you do not score a 6 within the first 4 pulls (1000 coins) you are absolutely getting destroyed.* (not that we aren’t already) And if you do pull a 6* within the first 40-pulls then man o man have you hit the jackpot! (not that it’s super likely based on Scopely chance)

ON EVENT PRIZING

Current solo level up first place gives 10,000 5* coins and a bunch of gear (at 0 value). So the actual winning is US$11. In comparison, the last solo level up that featured Christmas nuggets that could translate to a 6* at 12,000 was a US$100 prize! Boy, it seems Scopely CAN get super generous sometimes, eh?

EDIT: ON CRW

Rank Rewards: 1: 18000 5☆ Recruit Tokens | 3 Legendary Gear Bags | 4 Legendary Trainer

18000 = 1.8 x 5* = US$19.8

3 legendary gear bags = 0 (until they start to sell just legendary gear; meanwhile, canteen/gps was sold via stash and we can assume that those are 10,000+ coins each)

4 legendary trainers (based on current crates, should be less than US$11 because for the same price this offer has more stuff, but for simplicity) US$44

Total: US$65 + unknown value for legendary gear Oh dear.

CLOSING NOTE

As a P12, man - when I sat down to really thought about it all I absolutely got wrecked by this US$100 offer. Sure - I am happy for the community in general because engagement is king and will keep the game going but looking at my own server (Terrell is 2 years old) we are really aging and slowing down. Also, having failed to resist the gambler in me I did 31 pulls and did net a 5* Hershel - through this irresponsible behavior I spent 6850 coins and actually lost 6850-911= 5939 coins = US$72. Oh boy.

As well, weapons, on the hand, are currently not affected (yet) since premier weapon pulls are not as popular and do not have that 1 in 40 guarantee. Maybe this will happen when 5* weapons come out. But for now, the top enchantments like stun guns are being pegged at US$100 as well.

EDIT: this rapid asset value erosion matters, if the business plan is to head south - all the way south.

Your thoughts?

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I’m not going to get into specifics on the entire post, but one thing that bothers me, every time I see it, is the $100/9 math. Let me explain.

If you walk into a store and buy a $30 shirt, a $40 pair of jeans, a $10 belt, and six pair of socks for $20, you spent $100 total. If you were to tell someone ONLY the items you bought, and your total spending, should it be assumed that your jeans were only $11? No, they were $40. $11 was the AVERAGE price, not the price of each individual item. And that’s before we even get into any package discounts for buying select items together (i.e. if the jeans had originally been $60, but only cost you $40 because you bought the shirt and belt).

My point is, you can’t assume the value of a 5* at $11 just because the entire package was $100. Other factors go into the cost of the package.

The only thing that can be “safely” assumed is that a 6* character has an approximate value of $100, maybe a little more since this is considered a “special” offer to purchase Jeremiah for $100.

I’m not saying Scopely is justified in its valuation of anything, as the prices for weapon parts clearly show a distorted valuation of items in the game. Telling players a 5* is only worth $11 without considering all the other factors is irresponsible, though.

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I see what you mean.

Before we continue, would you agree with my starting assessment of what a 6* breaks down to:

1 fully maxed 5*
8 x 5* fodder
gear for each tier of t2, t3, t4
food required (for the exact math please refer to one of the super informative excels floating around)
AND medals (thanks for making me go over this again, edited my original post)

My take of US$100/9 is already off because I am already assuming a zero value for all of the other parts. (i.e. the rest of the stuff is not valued at zero, per crate offer valuation) So I would say you are correct to say that $100/9 is off because I had written off the other factors. (unless there are other factors I have missed?)

To say that US$100 is a 6* but 5*s are not $100/9 … then how would you value 5s?

To go back to your analogy, it would actually be 9 pairs of jeans that make up the jean portion of your wardrobe (I am assuming there is zero other use of the 8x5* fodder - unless you are actually using units that you would normally have additional use of, it doesn’t matter if they were 8xGators of 8xBeneditcs) … where you have a special pair at $40 (this would be the maxed 5*) and 8 pairs of lesser quality ones (which would be (100-40)/8=$7.50 - the ones that are more for everyday-use). Yes, the average cost of your jeans would therefore be $11.

The rest of the valuation assessment I can agree with, yes. As for what that puts the value of a 5* at, I honestly don’t have a good answer there. 3* Carl was valued at 10 when he was released (per Scopely's advertisement/announcement). That's what makes putting a amount on it so frustrating. If nine 3* make a 4*, then the 4* value appears to be $90, which can’t possibly be accurate. Even if you consider devaluing 3* in the 6* meta, how far do devalue it? $5? $3?

I think the more logical argument would be that a 6* would have an actual value, at least for Scopely, of over $100, and their special offer of $100 actually represents a rather significant discount.

No matter what their valuation is, I think your point that the characters are overvalued is correct.

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Most app games do not disclose the value of their in-game assets and therefore have gotten away from various class-action law suits for gambling/misleading marketing - where as Scopely did advertise 3* Glenn being US$10 about 2 years ago. (and opened themselves for mass refund)

I can only say that the asset evaluation table is a living document, and that 3* Glenn in the current “meta” would not be advertised or internally valued at US$10. My guess, based on how 3* are now in basic token wheel, would be less than US$1.

For the sake of discussion, I am using the value that Scopely is willing to sell their digital assets (marked up too, if I may add) to us at as the reference point - to show that not only these assets are over inflated but how terrible event prizing have been.

Take the next CRW:

Rank Rewards: 1: 18000 5☆ Recruit Tokens | 3 Legendary Gear Bags | 4 Legendary Trainer

18000 = 1.8 x 5* = US$19.8

3 legendary gear bags = 0 (until they start to sell just legendary gear; meanwhile, canteen/gps was sold via stash and we can assume that those are 10,000+ coins each)

4 legendary trainers (based on current crates, should be less than US$11 because for the same price this offer has more stuff, but for simplicity) US$44

Total: US$65 + unknown value for legendary gear

Oh dear.

Yes I am finally starting to see why.

The math really doesn’t work.

P12 for life! #dedicated

That toon costed a different amount in different countries. Anywhere from 95.99 - 135.99. ppl were posting about it all over forums.

Want to reply to this in all seriousness, a shorter version of it is: they don’t care.

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If the game plan is to kill this product off, then it would make 100% perfect sense why 5* digital asset valuation dropped from US$300 to US$11 over the course of 3 months.

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You, Sir, are right here!

Good post Sol

Scopely has finally shown their cards with the $100 for a Jeri offer. and $100 for the stun gun.

Other P2W games also do this where some items are for sale for $ and most other are for in-game currency. Which is a scam like casino chips.

Everyone remember when microsoft used to use XBL points instead of $$?

Yet another old school gambling tactic.

From my personal view, I have always saw this game and any videogame I spend money on as “entertainment budget” not an investment or a hard goods purchase or even a digital goods" purchase.

TWD is a game service. I can never obtain those digital puchases any other way than by using their game service…

Which means the very first day I bought OG shiva, I knew going in that I was buying a cartoon tiger that would leave me empty, and alone once the game shut down.

I willingly threw the money into the trash, staring into the void, watching it all burn

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