Scopley are you sure your odds are right?

Do the deal is I did 20 pulls for Michone and get cards only one Time .
I have it on video .
So I would say it’s my bad luck but wait a minute it’s not the first time this happened to me .it happens too much in the last few weeks .
And of course I have on videos as well .
Aren’t you going to say anything about that scopley?
Or am I in the wrong bucket of yours ?

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wrong bucket

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Well, the problem with RNG is that it is RANDOM, not NORMALIZED distribution (where over time you would get an equal spread). It’s extremely hard to disprove the odds if your sample is less than 10,000 instances…

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Say the odds are 1/100 to pull a toon. Every pull is 1/100. So if you do 20 pulls it isnt 20/100; its 1/100 20 times.

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Exactly. That’s why it is possible to have a dry spell of 500 pulls without the toon (if we say 1% chance - actual promos are 0.2% though), but also a chance of landing two in a 40 pull…

The only guarantee is the fixed rewards for a number of pulls, currently the 17 diamonds per 10…

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The only guarantee is that the house…Scopely…wins.

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I did a 20 pull for trader and got maybe 100 cards

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That’s not the problem man . It could be if the chances are -10% .
Burst 30% is just too high to be 1 in 20 .
It’s like 30% go all the way down to 5% .
It’s a 6 times less than the normal/ expected chances
Not 1 or 2 to say it’s the bad luck man .
I studies mathematics in university and this is not what it should be .

Let’s say it’s my bad luck out of 7 possible I got one right , that’s mean -6 . Let’s say another players pull just after me and get exactly the same .
That means -12 unit of cards .

Now a 3rd player jump to do another last 20 . And he pull all the cards we supposed to have P1 and P2

Have you ever seen a player did 20 pulls and got 18 times cards out of 20 ?

There’s definitely something wrong with odds .
Idk if you get the idea but trust me there’s something blocking players from getting cards and it’s been applied lately with the diamond tokens arrive.

There are very few good buckets out there🤗

Yea deff better buckets or just deep wallets to keep pulling to get the toon which I refuse to drop a car payment or house payment into this game for a toon and ti level it within a day

Those are actually statistically the same thing. That is, however, why people end up losing so much money because they think that somehow having “primed” the slot machine with so many losses means it is “about to pay off”.

Statistically, 1/100 done 20 times IS 20/100, but you could also end up with 1000 attempts at 1/100 not paying off.

It isnt the same thing 1/5 does not equal 1/100.

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Well worth a read: https://medium.com/7chain/how-are-drop-rates-manipulated-in-games-3f3ee4e3a974

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Gwneral mathematics (as a science) has very little to do with RNG, really. Unless you studied applied math of high prime numbers for use in encryption algorithms and random numbers, your studies have netted you zero insight, I am afraid.

I am far from an expert on the field here either, but can tell you that the “odds” represent the conditions programmed into the algorithm. Oversimplified let’s say they use RNG to spit out an integer (non-decimal) number between zero and 999, then the 30% odds represent a set of 300 numbers that are assigned to the declared prize.

However, the real effect (actual payout occurence) might not show anywhere close to the declared 30% on a repeat less than a power of the scale (1000^2, i.e. one million for this simple example), since the randomness of the RNG should ensure no repeating patterns. And picking out each number within the range is a pattern, actually…

I.e. the impression that doing a certain number of cumulative pulls will net the coveted prize is faulty, because that works only on a normalized distribution - and normalized distribution is not random (one of the very definitions of a good random number generating algorithm is how many loops it can run through without reaching a normalized distribution or any pattern in the results appearing)

I am not saying that the information displayed is correct (I don’t see Scopely as a company of high ethical standards - with an obvious track record of improper conduct, oversights and poor QA overall), just saying that complaining about twenty 40x pulls not yielding the expected outcome (even if such outcry is echoed by hundreds of players) does not constitute any proof that the odds are rigged…

For all obbious reasons, I do not participate in promo pulls (will have reconsidered now that the diamonds are in play, making a true guarantee return over long time ecen with minor individual incestments), simply because I like to play a strategic/tactical turn based combat game with RPG elements. If I got the kick out of RNG pulls, I’d be playing a slot machine game…

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The article describes Scopely.

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Well, the article is a one long advert for the poster’s own company offering RNG auditing…

In case you didn’t know. There’s absolutely no algorithm that generates random numbers .
No matter how you see it . It’s never random cause all algorithm had entries and results .
Entries always determine results . Do 2 line under the word (Always)
It’s like a function in math there is no faction that give 2 different results with the same arguments.
Random numbers algorithm been always a big field for research but until today no 100% random numbers algorithm been proved .
All the existing ones are half random.

Let’s the one scopley are using now take the account code as one of their parameters . Do you know what that means …
It means you’re fu#### up if the algorithm using your account code to calculate results.

Semantics.

OK, just so you can’t nitpick, I’ll rephrase that the scoring of an algorithm producing semirandom numbers is typically based on the ability to generate a stream of numbers with no obvious pattern or reaching a normalized (equal spread) distribution of results for as long as possible.

Happy?

And yes, the algorithms are based on fixed parameters (typically extremely high prime numbers) and variables (seed). The seed is typically based off a timestamp, but yeah, it can be multiplied by account code. That won’t make it locked out of the reward zone though, because it simply shifts the number sequence around…

Just as a funny addition - just did a 10x pull for the diamonds (my 2nd set) and got:
3x cards (209 total)
6x 5* toons
1x 4* toon

I guess I should get super upset that I got too many 5* (should have gotten only 3!) and not enough 4* (should have gotten at least 3, maybe even 4!)

That’s like saying I have a deck of cards. The odds of me getting an Ace of Spades is 1/52.

Every time the deck is shuffled, I pick the first card out of all 52 cards. Because I always pick the first card, the probability truely isn’t 1/52.

Of course thier odds are a lie. Why wouldn’t they be? Not like there is a company that checks everything in mobile games to make sure thier odds are actually true. Its all buckets here not odds. Guaranteed