Game odds broken?


#1

from league store i bough four silver/gold mods, with the probability 50/50. all turned out silver…
the probability to pull 4 silver in a row is (0,5)^4 which is 1/16. so 1 person out of 16 should get all 4 mods silver… which is possible…

i had problems with game odds before. when leveling adrenaline rushes of 5* i had a 33% chance of succes and 66% the oposite using 10x same trait characters. sometimes i didnt had ar lvl up succes for 9 times in a row using 10 same trait characters (90x 2* characters). the probability of this happening is (0,66)^9 which is close to 1/42, so i should be 1 in 42 person to not succed lvl up of ar this way. the problem is i had it numerous times…

so the question is are the game odds broken or am i this mega unlucky?


Broken odds! Support is trash!
Silver mods from a gold box?
#2

Nha you just got scopelyed I guess


#3

dude i used 400 citezens the once trying to get one AR level


#4

that is some unbelievable stuff…
if this is true this would mean that the odds shown are not real. at least back when you did it.
the odds of having 66% chances to fail and failing 40 times in a row are like 1 in 16 million.


#5

Remember, the odds are 4% per 2 star, and that doesn’t change each time you apply more, whether its applying 10 or 1. The 36% chance, every time you level 10 at once, is of at least one level

That said, 400 without any occurrence is still pretty damn unlucky.


#6

yup i was well pissed off lol was trying to get him ready to use in war, had to buy an aden in the end to get past that AR level then the last few worked off the 2* as normal.

It was like he was programmed not to gain another level unless i used a special trainer


#7

Been there. Also had a GUARANTEED 100k Scav Fail. I was mind blown. And super pissed.


#8

how…? lol wtf


#9

That was my thoughts, then they proceeded to basically say nothing is guaranteed yada yada


#10

Please see comment below for the defence of Scopely.


#11

Fixed that for you:
*90% guaranteed, 10% fail

They must not have to post that as it’s not for purchase.

smh


#12

While there is a chance that the odds are glitched/broken, players also have to remember the downside of using probabilities on a large scale.

Probabilities on a large scale can be deceiving to the mind, as you’re not really considering each individual probability.

While 1/16 odds is pretty low, getting 4 heads out of 4 coin flips can be pretty common too. Take a real world application and apply to the proability is best to see how large scale probabilities can be misleading.

So for example, pulling a 5* before the guaranteed 5* rule was established. The odds of pulling a 5* was like 1%? While it’s easy to think that you have a 33% chance to pull at least 1 5* when you do a 40 pull, in reality, you have 40 chances of picking 1 Ace card out of a stack of 100 cards, of which 99 are Jokers. Could you honestly expect to pull Ace once with only 40 tries at a 1% chance? It’s why many people didn’t get a 5* when they did a 40 pull. (Disregarding the fact that 33% total probability wasn’t even mentioned)


#13

So in conclusion:
you have better chance of getting heads four times in a row than getting a Erika from 3YT wheel.

Scopely’s RNG is not random, it’s heavily guided.
We need to stop calling it that.


#14

You’re assuming it’s equal odds; it very well could not. But even assuming equal odds, yes, you’re more likely, statistically, to get 4 heads from 4 coin flips than Erika.

There are more than 10 6*s in the Y3 wheel, so already at less than 2% chance for each individual wheel, which is less than 1/16


#15

It’s individual odds, not the aggregate. So, essentially the odds reset on each box/pull. So you have a 50% chance on each box. Agreed its “unlucky” but very possible to pull 10 silvers in a row from ten separate boxes and still fall within the stated odds. This applies to all aspects of the game including pulls from premier wheels, etc.

To use the deck of cards example above, the odds would be like pulling 1 ace out of a deck of 100 cards, but if you did 99 pulls it would be pulling one card out of a deck, then getting a new deck and pulling one card, and repeating that with a different deck and a different set of cards EACH time.


#16

from the rewards ive got all silver mods… this game is annoying… and the odds are broken.


#17

Two other of my faction teammates got 5 out of 5 silver mods with odds gold/silver - 1/3. Dont know if more…
The odds are broken!


#18

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