Are all pulls in stashes equal?


#1

Hi @kalishane and
Hi @whomever-this-may-concern,

For me the following question is really important. Are all pull slots in stashes equal? E.G. in the current Alert Stash with 50 slots, does every item has the same 2% chance of getting pulled?

I know you prefer not to answer question about your secret sauce, but his one actually might help you if disclose this information. I also trick you with this question, because if you don’t answer it, I will assume all slots can have a different chance. This could mean the ‘premium’ pull is much rarer than a foodbag…

If you answer this question, I am very thankful and happy.

Have a great week.

Oger Twix


#2

They probably won’t answer this until the odds are disclosed in the next patch. That said however, general rule of probability is to never assume independence or equal probabilities if not stated. Independence has been stated, but not for equal probabilities so act accordingly based on the information we know.


#4

Of course the rarer items have lower odds, stashes are designed to cap your cost, but still provide the same luck any other pull could provide otherwise.

So more expensive per pull for a guarantee at the end of the road if your willing to go the distance. If looking to only do a 10 pull gotta be lucky to get the best stuff just like any other RNG thing in the game.


#5

Love that and the way you think.

We know they won’t let us know and it’s a complete guess but If I had to bet the garbage is weighted heavier than the good stuff.


#6

Darn. We missed an opportunity to test it out by asking everyone to post their first pull and look at occurrence rate of each.

My guess is no, they are likely all different but that’s just based on how a perceive Scopely would use this to extract more money.


#7

I would like to know what formula they are using for the pricing of the pulls. At most any stash should be able to be completed with one coin bag the maximum one. Take the items out nobody cares about and just put in the ones we want to make it cost right. I am not buying 2 of the largest coin packs to complete this.


#8

The stun gun example…was a crate. I am pretty sure crates and bags are weighted, based on experience.
Please see pic…that made me think…


#9

True, although I had some extra coins and needed a shield. There was the 5* shield Michonne stash, so I took a 10 pull-and got her in the first 5 or 6. My luck is typically pretty abysmal, but not in that case.

So stashes probably have lower chances on certain items (ie. they are almost guaranteed to show up only after other things have been exhausted), but there isn’t a fix in place to assure that you won’t grab that top prize right off.


#10

That‘s not my guess, that‘s my experience.